Russia’s recent history is a rare — if not unique — example of a major country reversing its strategic course twice within just thirty-five years. While many aspects of this phenomenon have been studied, yielding valuable insights, a comprehensive analysis of this process remains insufficient. A common shortcoming among researchers, both in Russia and abroad, is political bias and ideological engagement. In this project, the authors seek to avoid these pitfalls by conducting research in accordance with the highest academic standards. This approach will not only provide answers to the question “What happened?” but, through the identification of causal relationships, will also address “Why did this happen?”
The project aims to develop scenarios for Russia’s future development through 2040. By scenarios, we do not mean development programs or prescriptive strategies but rather projections of the likely trajectories of transformation across key aspects of Russian society, culture, politics, and economy. It is essential to emphasize that these scenarios will emerge from the authors’ analysis rather than from an attempt to devise a specific development program for Russia. In other words, the resulting scenarios will be non-normative: they will not be framed as “desirable” or “undesirable.” The guiding principles of this analysis are political impartiality and ideological neutrality.
Stage 1. Multidisciplinary Study of Recent Russian History.
March 2024 – December 2026
Substage 1.1. Development of a Methodological Framework for the Multidisciplinary Study of Recent Russian History.
March 2024 – December 2024
Substage 1.2. Multidisciplinary Study of Recent Russian History.
January 2025 – December 2026
Stage 2. Development of Scenarios for the Russia`s Future (up to 2040).
January 2027 – December 2028
The analysis is structured around four primary research axes:
These axes represent endogenous parameters of societal transformation. However, the study also considers exogenous factors that could significantly impact the country’s trajectory, such as foreign policy, technological trends, and demographic and climatic shifts. At this stage, foreign policy has been identified as the most critical exogenous factor for analysis. A key objective of research is to examine the interconnections and interdependencies among these axes. By understanding their dynamics and identifying stable causal relationships, the study aims to provide deeper insights into Russia’s past while developing a robust framework for interpreting probable future scenarios. This methodological approach represents a core element of the project’s novelty, both in substance and in methodology.
Victor Vakhshtayn, PhD (Sociology) – Senior Research Fellow, Center for Russian Studies, Tel Aviv University
Alexander Arkhangelsky, PhD (Philology) – Senior Research Fellow, Center for Russian Studies, Tel Aviv University
Dmitry Butrin – Research Fellow, Center for Russian Studies, Tel Aviv University
Alexander Baunov – Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Center, Berlin
Alexander Libman, PhD (Economics) – Professor of Russian and East European Politics, Free University of Berlin
Itai Sened, Professor, Academic Project Director, Doctor of Sciences, Gershon H. Gordon Faculty of Social Sciences, Tel Aviv University.
Anatoly Chubays, PhD (Economics), Chair of the Center for Russian Studies, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Visiting Professor, London School of Economics.
